Friday, November 05, 2004

Brits to America: You're Idiots!

Wow, talk about perpetuating the stereotype of the intellectually condescending European...

Thursday, November 04, 2004

Cyclic Nature of Political Parties

George Will writes : "In the 37 elections since 1860 -- the first won by a Republican -- Democrats have won only 14. Only twice in 15 post-World War II elections has the Democratic nominee achieved 50 percent of the vote. American politics has known many oscillations; some scholars have discerned an almost metronomic regularity in its political cycles. Now, however, there is an astonishing stasis, immune even to the winds of war."

I wouldn't be so quick to dismiss the Democratic Party. From 1932 to 1964, only two Presidential elections saw a Republican victor. Eisenhower was a very moderate Republican at that, and so popular after WWII, he was guaranteed victory.

This is an interesting lesson. First in 1940, after years of Roosevelt, the Republican party reached out to Wendell Wilkie, a moderate businessman, since their "bench" talent was so weak. He was the closest opponent to Roosevelt. When the Republican party finally did win, they reached out to a retired General, not some party hack.

Keep in mind, the Republicans won by 175,000, not 3.5 million voters. If Ohio goes blue, so goes the Presidency, with or without the popular vote. If the Democrats are going to win in 2008, they need to accomplish a few things:

1. Anoint a candidate, and don't hold a bunch of primary battles. In my list below, I've listed a bunch of party hacks, but imagine a successful businessman or a retired military officer.
2. Change the primary schedule. If you insist on an open field of primaries, start in big blue states, then move to large red states. This can test the anointed, or cull the herd of the nationally unelectable. I'd start in Pennsylvania or Michigan, then move to Florida, Virginia, and Colorado.
3. Turn ONE to THREE red states blue. Ohio is very close and can be taken. Florida is a possibility, but I also think Virginia and/or West Virginia can be won by the right candidate.

Edwards Not Making Friends for 2008

According to this article, Edwards irked a few folks yesterday with his concession speech. Internet rumor is, he also delayed Kerry's concession to the Ohio vote.

Wednesday, November 03, 2004

Why on Earth would you do this?

John Thune is on Hardball right now, talking about his victory over Tom Daschle. I can't understand why the people of South Dakota would vote against such a powerful Senator, whether you agree with him or not.

South Dakota is a small state - having an advocate like the Senate Majority Leader means you get $$$. Pork for roads and parks and whatever else the federal government feels like blowing money on. All the influence of that little state just went out the window.

Will Evangelicals Turn on the Republican Party?

Online NewsHour: Cultural Divisions in the United States that Contributed to the Way the Election Went -- November 3, 2004: "JIM WALLIS: You know, some of those faith-based organizations who are providing services are the very ones who are now saying we can't keep pulling bodies out of the river and not send somebody upstream to see what or who is throwing them in. So they're talking about policy questions. So this is where the old left-right thing breaks down. "

This is a pretty interesting statement. Could you see a coalition of Democrats that de-emphasizes reactive social services and focuses on policies that cause equity problems combined with Fundamental Christians that take the same approach?

Larry Kudlow on George W. Bush, John Kerry, Exit Polls, Evangelicals, and Election 2004 on National Review Online

Larry Kudlow is talking about this on MSNBC right now. The most telling thing - 40% of Americans identify themselves as "born-again" Christians.

This could be the killer for Rudy Guiliani. He may be "America's Mayor", but a New York Italian Catholic that cheated on his wife then divorced her isn't going to sell well in places like the solid Red Southeast.

John Edwards - Going Nowhere

A lot of wags are talking about John Edwards in 2008 for the Democratic Party. It's not going to happen.

In 2006, early candidates will start declaring, but John Edwards is out-of-business. He doesn't have a job anymore. Richard Burr has his Senate seat. He can't run for the U.S. House, since his district in Raleigh is already held by a Democrat. North Carolina re-elected its Democratic governor last night for a four-year term.

Unlike Rudy Guiliani, Edwards doesn't have a dramatic event like 9/11 he can draw upon. He can make the Sunday morning circuit, but what's he going to do for the next two years to look active? He can become like Al Gore, a raving lunatic, but is that what the Democratic party wants in a legitimate candidate?

By 2006, in a crowded field, will anyone really remember him, and despite his personal wealth, can he buy the name recognition?

Not likely.

Future of the Democratic Party

Left Comeback? - Megan McArdle makes a good observation about the Democratic party's proclivity to scapegoating instead of internal observation. Unfortunately, if the Democratic party is going to learn from the failures of the past, they have about 2 years to do it. Saletan, via a back-handed compliment to the GOP, lauds their scheme for putting a single candidate forward as early as 1998, an excellent strategy when faced with a wide-open GOP field.

The first major test of a new strategy will be in 2006 - the Democratic party must challenge and defeat some entrenched Republicans, especially in the Senate (the House is too difficult) if they're going to show they are a major challenger. Pick a Republican senator in blue state - Rick Santorum in PA - and beat him. Then, replace a Republican senator with a Dem in a Red state, ideally somewhere in the South. Failure to perform both these tasks, and the party isn't ready to mount the national campaign necessary to win the White House in 2008. News - Latest News - Hillary Clinton Is Bookies' 2008 Favourite News - Latest News - Hillary Clinton Is Bookies' 2008 Favourite

While Ladbrokes may like Hillary, my first cut at the field is:


Sen. Chuck Hagel, Neb.
Gov. Mitt Romney, Mass.
Gov. George Pataki, N.Y.
Rudolph Guiliani
Gov. Jeb Bush, FL
Gov. Bill Owens, CO
Sen. Bill Frist, TN
Gov. Mitch Daniels, IN


Gov. Bill Richardson, NM
Sen. Hillary Clinton, N.Y.
Gov. Mark Warner, VA
Gov. Gary Locke, WA
Sen. John Edwards, NC
Gov. Ed Rendell, PA
Sen. Jon Corzine, NJ
Sen. Evan Bayh, IN

1,461 days to Election Day

In about 30 minutes, John Kerry will concede the 2004 election. Since there is no obvious Republican nominee, and the Democratic party is in shambles, I am going to start tracking information on potential Presidential candidates in the next election.